A dramatic increase in Ottawa’s arrests for sexual assault may indicate a shift institutional shift in the Ottawa Police Services.

According to Statistics Canada crime data, the number of arrests for level one sexual assault, which is assault that results in minor or no bodily injuries, has increased in Ottawa by nearly 50 per cent from 2011 to 2015.

The numbers have surprised some experts. Holly Johnson, a professor of criminology at the University of Ottawa says that the numbers present a different picture than what the national trend is showing. According to a Statistics Canada 2014 report on criminal victimization in Canada, only five per cent of sexual assaults in Canada were brought to the attention of police, down from eight per cent in 2004. But Johnson says these new numbers suggest Ottawa itself might be going in the opposite direction, “I’m not sure why Ottawa would be running counter to a national trend,” she says.

The same data that shows an increase in Ottawa’s arrests suggests that the rest of the country is not experiencing a similar spike. In fact the number of arrests for both Canada and Ontario have decreased by about two per cent between 2011 and 2015. Other major cities such as Toronto and Vancouver have seen an increase but not on the same scale as Ottawa.

The arrest rate for sexual assault in Ottawa has sky-rocketed in comparison with other major cities in Canada. The nation’s capital once lagged way behind other major Canadian cities, such as Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary in 2011, but in 2015 Ottawa had a higher rate than all four. While Ottawa’s rate is still lower than national and provincial average, the gap has closed significantly.

Yami Msosa, of the Ottawa Sexual Assault Support Centre, says that the increase in arrests is due to the way police are addressing sexual assault. In recent years Ottawa police have been criticized for the number of sexual assault cases reported as “unfounded.” When an incident is reported as unfounded it means that a crime did not occur or that there is insufficient evidence. Msosa says that the increase in arrests is due to the police changing their practices and laying charges.
“The number of incidents hasn’t actually changed, the way they report it has changed,” she says.
However, Professor Johnson does not think that the answer is that simple. Johnson states that it is likely that the increase in arrests could be caused by a shift in police practices. However, she says that there is limited data to suggest an increase in actual incidents or reports by victims of sexual assault.
“My educated guess is that the police are coding it differently,” she says, rather than treating cases as unfounded.
While the increase in arrests may be considered a small sign of a institutional shift in the way sexual assault cases are handled, Mavis Morton, a professor of criminology at the University of Guelph, believes that there is still a long way to go. She says that an arrest does not mean that the charges will proceed.
“An increase in arrests doesn’t necessarily say anything about what that leads to.” says Morton.
Morton says that while an increase in arrests might be a part of a shift towards taking sexual assault more seriously, “it is not the test that things have changed and that we are moving in a positive direction.