All posts by Alexander Brockman

Ottawa voters staying away from ballot box

Database assignment three
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Fewer people are making their voices heard in Ottawa’s municipal elections for city councilors.

The percentage of voters who cast their ballots dropped 13 per cent in the last two municipal elections of city council, according to an analysis of Ottawa voting data.

Voter turnout in this year’s election was only 40 per cent of the electorate a nine point drop from 2006. Barrhaven had the lowest voter turnout in the city with only 34 per cent of eligible voters participating.


But what causes low voter turnout, and what are some possible solutions for this?

“The most important factors in voter turnout election to election are issues that people care about and competitive candidates that are capable to hold office,” said Duff Conacher, the co-founder of Democracy Watch, an Ottawa-based voter advocacy group.

“I think the whole city government has been aware of the low voter turnouts, so they added days to the advance polls so more people could come out,” said Allan Hubley, the councillor for Kanata-South.“It looks like it didn’t work completely, but people did use the advanced polls.”

A City of Ottawa spokesman wrote in an email that the Special Advance Voting Days were considered a “great success.” Polling stations were open from Oct. 1-3 as well as the traditional days of Oct. 9, 18 and 27.

Hubley’s ward in Kanata-South has seen the most dramatic drop of the entire city – 24 per cent fewer voters than in 2006.

He said voter turnouts are often a reflection of the competitiveness of the race and the actions of the particular politicians involved.

“In Kanata-South in 2010 the race was wide open and there were a lot more people involved. This year I was the incumbent and the community supported the work I was doing for them,” Hubley said, pointing to his high margin of victory as proof of community support.

His assertions about the competitive races appear to match the data.

In Somerset Ward, 11 candidates fought to replace Diane Holmes, who had been on council since 2003 and the voter turnout only declined by three per cent, which is half the drop in turnout between the 2006 and 2010 elections.

The race in Kitchissippi Ward was marred by allegations of smear campaigns and bullying. Its voter turnout was the highest in the city at 48 per cent – a drop of only three per cent compared to 2010.

The Toronto mayoral election, which dominated media coverage throughout the summer of 2014 saw a 60 per cent voter turnout in the election to replace Rob Ford. In Ottawa, Jim Watson was re-elected with only 40 per cent of voters casting a ballot.

Another explanation of voter turnout may be issues with the accessibility of voting.
According to Elections Canada, after the 2011 federal election, the most common reasons non-voters gave for not voting related to personal issues like work, school, and family.

“In 2004 there was a shift in the reasons given for not going to vote. The largest group of non-voters say that accessibility was the biggest issue,” said Nicole Goodman, an expert in online voting from the University of Toronto. “This is something that can be addressed with remote voting.”

“More Canadian electors have the option of voting in municipal elections that any other jurisdiction in the world,” Goodman said.

She said online voting has the potential to increase the voting rates for those who want to vote but have difficulty getting to the polling station.

But studies examining voter turnouts in Estonia – where almost a quarter of voters cast their ballots online – say there won’t be any significant increase in turnout.

“Internet voting can only ease voting for those who are already familiar with the Internet: that is to say, predominantly male, young people, the rich, and the well-educated,” wrote Daniel Bochsler in a 2009 report for the Central European University.

“E-voting is not a substitute for the people who are apathetic and won’t come out to vote. But it can be a tool for those who want to vote and have accessibility issues,” Goodman said.

But with this technology comes increased worry.

“There is no evidence internet voting increases turnout, and with the increase of internet hacking, there is more risk of having the results hacked,” Conacher said.

He suggested a ranked ballot system, increased government accountability and increased proportional representation at the municipal level as better ways to increase turnout.

“You’ll never get 100 per cent turnout, even with mandatory voting,” Conacher said.

Tecumseh – a small town in Southern Ontario – was one of several municipalities to add e-voting this year.

“This year there was a race in the mayor’s office, the deputy mayor’s office, and a prominent community member was running for council, so it certainly helped the voter turnout,” Laura Moy, the Tecumseh clerk said..

Moy said the addition of e-voting may have also been a factor along with the competitive races in the 5 per cent increase in voter turnout.

“There were a few people who loudly complained about e-voting, but most of the feedback from voters has been very positive,” she said.

She added the town was involved in making e-voting widely known and available to voters, especially in nursing homes and apartment buildings – where voter turnouts are usually low.

“Some people were worried about it, especially those with older parents, but once they realized how easy it was to do they were on board,” she said. “They didn’t need to go out and pick their parents up, bundle them up, and bring them to the polling station which made it easier for everybody.”

With more competitive elections, and further innovation, the trend of dwindling voter turnout may be reversed in Ottawa.

Despite decline in number of bail violations, criticism persists

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Even though the rate of bail violations in Somerset ward has dropped over the last two years, there are still criticisms over the pre-trial detention conditions and the fairness of Ontario’s bail system as a whole.

Since 2012, bail violations in Centretown have dropped 23 per cent, according to an analysis of Ottawa Police Services data.

In 2013 there were 578 charges of bail violation. In 2012, that number was 749.

But Somerset ward still has the highest rate of bail violations in the city, with a rate of 150 per 10,000 compared to the next highest–Rideau-Vanier–which has a rate of 64 per 10,000.

Somerset also makes up 40 per cent of the total charges of bail violation in the entire city.

Daniel Nugent, an Ottawa criminal defence lawyer said this percentage isn’t surprising.

“If you live outside of downtown, you’re less likely to be noticed by the police. But downtown is where all the activity is. If you want to buy or sell drugs, downtown is where to do it. These activities are concentrated by the shelters downtown.”

The way the bail system works in Ontario, anyone charged with a crime appears before either a judge or a justice of the peace where a decision is made on whether a person will remain in jail before trial, or whether they can be released with a promise to appear for trial.

“The most important question is whether or not the person has a record of failing to comply with court orders in the past,” Nugent said. “The justice of the peace determines things like flight risk, the likelihood to reoffend and the likelihood of causing harm. These are all taken into consideration when deciding bail.”

But the variety of restrictions that can be placed on this freedom is where many people come into trouble since bail violation is a criminal offence.

“With a lot of bail conditions, there are a lot of breaches. If you have a curfew and you’re out too late, it isn’t serious, but you’ve breached your probation.” Nugent said. “If you fail to report to your probation officer on the exact day or time, you could be charged with a bail violation.”

These restrictions have caused some to question the fairness of Ontario’s bail courts.

In 2013, the Canadian Civil Liberties Association published a report “Set up to fail: Canada’s Bail Courts” which criticised the system as being “chaotic and unnecessarily risk-averse.”

“Numerous and restrictive conditions, imposed for considerable periods of time, are setting people up to fail – and failing to comply with a bail condition is a criminal offence, even if the underlying behaviour is not otherwise a crime,” the report said.

Abby Deshman, one of the report’s authors, said this data is consistent with the results of her nation-wide study.

She said the main problem with the high number of bail violations is unrealistic restrictions placed on offenders with a history of alcohol and drugs.

Abby-Deshman-headshot-225x300
Abby Deshman, Canadian Civil Liberties Society

“By placing abstinence restrictions on addicts, you’re just setting them up to fail,” Deshman said.

The Canadian Civil Liberties Association is not alone in its criticism of the bail system, especially after a decision has been made to detain the accused – either before bail has been awarded or after it has been violated.

In 2002, the Supreme Court of Canada criticised pre-trial detention for having “concrete and profound deleterious effects on the accused.”

“There are demonstrated and troubling correlations between pre-trial detention and both the ability to present a defence and the eventual outcome of the trial,” the Court said.  “Moreover, an accused placed on remand is often subjected to the worst aspects of our correctional system by being detained in dilapidated overcrowded cells without access to recreational or educational programs.”

But Nugent said ultimately, the system works.

“In fairness, the bail system in Canada isn’t that bad. It’s a fairly reasonable system. It’s when you breach the system numerous times – I have clients who beat their girlfriend, then get out of jail and do it again. When you repeatedly violate bail, you’ll be charged,” he said.

Deshman said law enforcement should use discretion with setting bail conditions. The focus should be on violent offenders rather than non-violent ones.

“It makes sense to place restrictions on people charged with domestic assault and violent offenders, these help public safety and protect victims,” she said.

In light of the shootings in Ottawa, Oct. 22, the Ottawa Police Services were unavailable for comment for this story.

Yukon drivers spending most time at the pump in Canada

Database assignment one
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Yukon drivers buy the most gasoline at the pumps in Canada per week according to an analysis of Statistics Canada data.

In 2013, drivers in Yukon purchased approximately 40.2 litres of gas each week, almost 1½ times the Canadian average. This is part of a larger national trend of increased fuel consumption.

But according to Roydon Fraser, a researcher at the Waterloo Centre for Automotive Research, this shouldn’t be surprising.

RoydonA_Fraser
Roydon A. Fraser, Professor, University of Waterloo. (www.uwaterloo.ca)

He said factors affecting the fuel efficiency of an engine – how much gas it burns per kilometre – include cold weather and poor road conditions.

Both of which are common in the territories.

“Engines consume more gasoline in cold weather and it’s not uncommon for people to run the engine for a couple minutes to get the block heater running,” he said.

Another effect on engine efficiency is the driving distance. In Ontario, many drivers live closer to cities, and the commute is not particularly difficult.

In the North, drivers often need to drive further and through icy conditions, Fraser said.

Ontario and Quebec drivers, while together purchasing 60 per cent of the nation’s gas, were near the median when it came to gasoline used per week. Ontario drivers consumed 27.8 litres and Quebec drivers 22.8 litres each week.

It is also more likely that Yukon drivers will be driving a truck rather than a small car. According to Statistics Canada, trucks outsold passenger cars by a 60-40 per cent margin in British Columbia and the Territories in 2013.

Fraser said this doesn’t mean drivers do not care about the environment. In fact it means the opposite.

“It’s called the energy paradox,” he said. “If we make more efficient engines, people will upgrade to bigger vehicles with a better fuel economy.”

A study published by researchers at the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) supports this. It found that the average engine efficiency has been steadily rising – from 11.7 l per 100 km in Oct. 2007 to 9.1 l per 100 km in August 2014.

But despite this, Canadians are still using more fuel. In 2013, Canadians purchased 41.5 million litres of gasoline at the pump. In 2010 that number was 39.7 million litres. “

The absolute consumption is going up, because of the increasing population. However, the consumption per driver is going down,” Michael Sivak, the director of UMTRI, wrote in an email.

In a study published in April 2014, Sivak found that the fuel consumption per driver is noticeably dropping. In the United States, between 2004 and 2012 each driver has cut down their yearly fuel consumption by 433 litres – about seven fill-ups per year.

While the report states there are “fundamental, non-economic changes in society” being driven by public transportation and increased urbanization, Sivak said there is still a lot of work to do in creating a sustainable future for transportation.

He said even though these numbers show support for sustainable transportation is increasing, drivers should still be conscious about the amount of fuel they consume.