OTTAWA-Caresse Ley

Canadian dairy farmers have jumped the gun on railroading the new Canada-European Union trade agreement.

An analysis of import and export data for the dairy industry as a whole and the smaller cheese industry shows that, at worst, dairy farmers would lose control of about four per cent of the Canadian cheese market.

As it stands, Canada produces about 400,000 metric tonnes of cheese per year on average, according to data from the Canadian Dairy Information Centre (CDIC), run by the Government of Canada. About 120,000 metric tonnes is produced in the speciality cheese market. This accounts for a little over a quarter of Canada’s cheese market, and it is in this sector where dairy farmers have feared the most competition.

Under the new Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), the E.U. would be allowed to import into Canada an additional 16,000 metric tonnes of cheese per year. If Canadian dairy farmers lost business, tonne for tonne, this would only represent about four per cent of the total cheese market being closed off to them.

Below: Metric tonnes of cheese imported to Canada by country in 2012. Source: Industry Canada

 

If the dairy farmers’ predictions come true and the E.U. farmers use their new market share to penetrate the speciality cheese market only, this would represent about a 13 per cent loss of market share for those products. These are the worst case scenarios possible, said Aamir Asgarali, a sector specialist for Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, who focuses on developments in the dairy industry. In other words, the domestic market would remain significant.

The Canadian dairy market was worth about $13.5 billion in 2012. Cheese exports accounted for about $207 million of that, according to Industry Canada.

The problem in Canada is that most farmers are, effectively, small business owners; 13 per cent of market share is not a small number to them. But four per cent needn’t frighten them just yet. Farmers are assuming that for every tonne of cheese that is imported, “a tonne of Canadian-made cheese will be displaced. This does not account for (annual) market growth,” said Asgarali.

What’s unique is that this isn’t a classic case of local entrepreneur versus big business; Beaulieu explained that the farm sizes are relatively the same in Canada and the E.U.. Yet, the E.U. farmers stand to gain more from CETA.

Export data for cheese from Canada to other countries in 2012 can be found by clicking here.

Countries including Italy, France, Switzerland and several others already count themselves as part of Canada’s top 10 trading partners – Canada imported about 13,600 metric tonnes of cheese last year from the E.U., according to the CDIC. This accounts for about half of Canada’s total cheese imports in 2012. E.U. dairy farmers have a clearly-established grip on part of the cheese market here in Canada, or at least a substantial part of what is imported, which should allow them to transition more easily into exporting more cheese to Canada.

Canadian dairy farmers have no such presence in the E.U..

“We don’t have an established place in that market,” said Asgarali. “But that’s not because we can’t. It’s just because no effort has been put into developing a market there.”

“It’s an uphill battle,” said Therese Beaulieu of Dairy Farmers of Canada on establishing a demand for Canadian cheese in Europe. Currently, the United States is the biggest receiver of Canadian cheese exports, followed by Saudi Arabia and several countries in Asia.

“That’s where the growth is,” said Beaulieu of Asia. She explained that those countries do not have the land resources to develop their own farms, so there is demand for Canadian cheese and dairy products to fill that gap.

Penetrating the E.U. market will prove difficult, said Beaulieu, a sentiment that was echoed by Asgarali. Both said the cost of cheese production in Canada is much higher, which will make it difficult to compete with the Europeans in their own backyard.

So while Canadian farmers may not lose as much on Canadian soil as was initially anticipated, it is unlikely they will benefit from the deal internationally, at least in the short term.

ADDITIONAL LINKS

Click here to read a report from 2011 on the Canadian dairy industry.

Click here to read more on why the Dairy Farmers of Canada want to stop CETA.

Click here to search for trade data on your own.

Asia will continue to be the driving force for Canadian wine exports despite the upcoming Canada-EU free trade deal opening up European markets for Canadian wine producers, according to industry experts.

While the United States remains the largest market for Canadian wine exports, China is now in second place and imports almost as much. The Chinese more than tripled their imports of Canadian wine between 2009 and 2012, and the demand continues to grow.

“Just because of this agreement, there’s not a great benefit to export to Europe. If you go to France, you’ll see 95 per cent of the wine in France is French wine,” said Duncan Gibson, director of finance at the Wine Council of Ontario.

“[Asia] is where a lot of our people concentrate… those exports will increase.”

China imported about $16.7 million worth of wine from Canada in 2012, and $9.5 million of that came from Ontario. The Chinese have also started buying vineyards in Canada. The Ottawa Business Journal reported in March that a wealthy Chinese investor has dropped $20 million on a mansion and vineyard in the Thousand Islands area. 

After China, South Korea was the third largest market for Canadian wines. Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and Taiwan all made an appearance in the top 10.

You can compare the 2012 Canadian wine export market with the market in 1990 with the maps below. The darker shade a country is, the more Canadian wine it buys. While the United States has remained a large importer of our wine, there is a clear shift from Europe to Asian markets, especially China.

Wine Exports in 1990

Wine Exports in 2012

The total export market, for Canadian wine, however, remains small. As Gibson explains, it’s a matter of quality over quantity.

“The world is full of inexpensive wine that other countries can make less costly than we do… because they’re warm climates, their grapes grow a lot, there’s a higher yield. They can make a lot of cheap wine,” Gibson said.

“So it’s hard for us to compete on price when we export. We compete on quality and a style of wine. We sell smaller quantities of better product.”

“We will never a player in the cheap, bulk wine market, just because we can’t produce it that way,” he said.

Premium product, especially wine that’s been certified as being authentically Canadian, is building a following outside Canada, according Laurie Macdonald, executive president of the Vintners Quality Alliance in Ontario

“Particularly, icewine has been quite successful in Asia,” Macdonald said, that certifies wines made with 100 per cent local grapes.

Read: The Canadian Vintners Association talks about Icewine taking off in Asia

“In Ontario, VQA is the wine of origin here, as opposed to wine that contains imported products. So I think worldwide, consumers are more interested in wines that are, you know, authentic wines of origin. They’re not just commodities bundled from all over the place, they come from a specific place based on the origin of the grape.”

 Read: The VQA’s guidelines on certifying Ontario wines.

The EU free trade deal does help the Canadian wine industry in one aspect, though, as Gibson explains.

“Before the agreement, there were duties and taxes on certain equipment that was brought in from Europe,” he said.

“Grape presses, other machinery like tanks, oak barrels… so that when Ontario wine producers import that equipment from Europe, it will now be less expensive because there won’t be duties and taxes. So that will be a positive for domestic producers.”

Alberta oil exports to Oklahoma have shot up billions of dollars since the Keystone pipeline was completed in 2011, but the economic benefits for the southwest state remain limited, experts say.

An analysis of Industry Canada trade data shows oil exports from Alberta to Oklahoma reached $3.4 billion in 2012, up from only $33 million in 2008. The spike happened in 2011, the same year the second phase of the Keystone pipeline running from Nebraska to Cushing, Okla. was completed. Attention is now focused on the approval of the pipeline’s extension to Texas.

With so much oil flowing through to the state of Oklahoma, the economic benefits for the state have been touted by some studies and politicians. But two economics professors say that the financial benefits are mostly short-term construction jobs.

It’s impossible to say an increase in oil imports will cause a specific net benefit to Oklahoma’s economy, said Andrew Leach, an environmental economist and professor at the Alberta School of Business. He said jobs aren’t long-term, and the one’s that are long-term are relatively few and far between.

Leach said it’s important to ask if Oklahoma is obtaining oil through the Alberta pipeline at a cheaper rate than if it had pursued other options.

“If you look at these things in a vacuum it’s this pipeline or nothing,” Leach said. “If TransCanada didn’t apply someone else would have.”

While the pipeline might ease the flow of oil for Alberta’s oil producers, Leach said the warehouse-style transportation does not mean discount prices for importers like Oklahoma. Just because oil is being refined in the Cushing area, it doesn’t mean those refineries would have sat empty without the pipeline. “Nobody runs a refinery because of a pipeline – it’s built because of production capacity,” he said.

Oklahoma is currently Alberta’s sixth-biggest American state for oil exports, accounting for six per cent of exports to the country. Exports to Texas sit at under $1 billion, but that’s expected to change if the Keystone pipeline is completed.

Alberta’s oil sands will bring in anywhere between $55 and $132 million per year to Oklahoma’s economy, according to a study by the independent Canadian Energy Research Institute. That same report also said Alberta’s oil would create or preserve anywhere from 640 to 1,520 jobs per year.

But reports like these might not always be as accurate as they claim to be, said Matthew Rousu, an economics professor at Susquehanna University in Pennsylvania. Rousu’s research includes reviewing the accuracy of economic impact studies.

Rousu said Oklahoma may benefit from temporary construction jobs or ongoing maintenance work, but “the bigger benefit almost seems like it would go to Alberta and whoever is extracting in the province.”

Rousu said economic impact studies are often used to mislead the public for political or corporate gain. It’s also difficult to accurately predict future economic benefits.

“You can’t look at it and say, this refinery is now processing oil, therefore all jobs are coming from the pipeline,” Leach said. Preserving and creating jobs are two different things. There might be a demand for oil-related jobs in the area that would be filled irrespective of Keystone’s expansion, he said.

The pipeline is “certainly not a multi-digit or multi-percent impact” on Oklahoma’s GDP, Leach said.

Canada’s deficit in its prescription drug trade with Europe swelled to more than $25 billion over the last five years. And experts say that’s one more sign that consumers will face higher drug prices once the recent Canada-EU free trade deal comes into effect.

The figure emerged in an analysis of Canada’s pharmaceutical trade with the European Union from 2008 to 2012, the most recent year statistics are available.

The analysis shows Canadian exports to Europe being dwarfed by imports from the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Sweden among others.

Last month, the European Union won key pharmaceutical concessions from Canada after four tough years of free-trade negotiations.

Canada agreed to EU demands to extended patent protection for up to two years on brand-name drugs, and gave European firms the right of appeal against unfavourable court rulings, which could add 18 months to a patented drug’s lucrative life.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper acknowledged last month in Brussels there could be some “upward pressure” on drug prices, which would come in 2023 if the deal is made final by 2015. But he pledged that Ottawa would compensate the provinces.

Joel Lexchin, a York University health policy specialist, said that will be no help to Canadians with lower paying jobs, or who don’t have drug insurance plans.

He accused Ottawa of caving to the EU’s tough pharmaceutical demands in exchange for winning greater access for Canadian pork and beef to the heavily-protected European market.

“The big push was to get Canadian access for some of our agricultural products to Europe, and if drugs are going to cost an extra billion or two billion a year that was seen as the price we were going to pay for it,” said Lexchin, who co-authored a recent study on how the trade deal would affect drug prices.

It estimated the cost to Canadians from delaying introduction of cheaper generic medicines to be between $800 million and $1.65 billion, once the patents on new drugs begin to expire in 2023.

The Harper government, along with the Canadian industry group, R&D Canada, has maintained that the enhanced intellectual property protection for drugs would attract European research and development dollars to Canada.

“I do not believe in magic so I do not think that major drug companies will all of a sudden start to invest in Canada. They will pocket the additional earnings and redistribute it to shareholders,” said Marc-Andre Gagnon, a Carleton University expert on pharmaceutical innovation, who co-authored the recent study with Lexchin.

Adam Taylor, spokesman for Trade Minister Ed Fast, said the government believes that stronger patent protection will lead to greater investment in research and development.

“The additional protection provided to new drugs aligns Canada with other countries seeking to provide competitive environments for innovative and high paying jobs.”

Taylor said the trade deficit in drugs is due to the EU’s much larger global footprint in the sector, but he said Canada maintains superiority in the fish and seafood sectors.

“The Canada-European Union trade agreement levels the playing field and will help grow Canada’s pharmaceutical exports to the massive EU market. We’ve also preserved the export opportunities for Canada’s vibrant generic drug sector.”

Amid much fanfare, Harper signed the deal with the EU last month in Brussels, and his ministers have been selling it across Canada since then.

Earlier this month at a House of Commons committee, the NDP trade critic Don Davies pressed Trade Minister Ed Fast to release internal government documents that may predict potential soaring drug costs for Canadians under the agreement.

“Mr. Davies,” Fast replied, “we are not going to provide you, or the public, with information that is speculative in nature.”

Ottawa Police are grappling with a problem in Vanier that goes beyond short-term fixes.

It’s a sad fact that in 2011 and 2012 Rideau-Vanier has the highest per capita rate of prostitution of all the wards in the city of Ottawa.

Officially at least prostitution numbers are down, and have been declining for a number of years. However, some residents say that they don’t feel that progress. Vanier resident Chantel Lavergne told the Ottawa Sun this past March that she’s tired of living in a ward with such a recurrent problem.

It seems that the Ottawa Police has been taking extra measures to deal with the problem.  Two two-day sweeps in Vanier during the summer this year netted 39 “johns,” according to the Ottawa Citizen.  It’s the arrest of johns that drive the numbers for prostitution crime statistics.

Considering that the total of actual offences from 2012 was 40, 2013 could be well on its way to an increase in the number of prostitution offences. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s a greater problem, said Inspector Chris Rheaume. Instead, it’s the result of increased police activity.

“I took over from the last inspector in September of last year. I just said ‘we’ve got to attack this, it’s a problem, it’s a community concern, so let’s go at it a little bit harder.”

The sweeps themselves are complaint-driven, Rheaume said.  It makes residents feel better to see a strong police presence in problem areas, he said. But do the sweeps significantly reduce activity in the targeted areas?

“To tell you the truth, no.  It does for a bit, then it goes right back,” Rheaume said.

And unfortunately john sweeps are one of the few cards that Ottawa Police has to play.

“Until the Bedford decision comes down the pipe, pretty much this is the only solution we have,” he said, referring to the Bedford vs. Canada case, which argues that Canada’s prostitution laws are unconstitutional. Currently the case is before the Supreme Court.
In the meantime, the most Rheaume can do is make Vanier residents feel satisfied that their police force is taking the matter seriously.

 

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Hintonburg residents may want to start checking if their doors are locked before hitting the pubs and restaurants in their up-and-coming neighbourhood, since they live in a ward with the highest rate per capita of break-and-enters in Ottawa.

Kitchissippi ward, which includes Hintonburg, has Ottawa’s highest rate of break-ins per capita according to crime data from 2012

The data shows that Kitchissippi had 248 reported break-and-enters, which works out to 60 break-ins per 10,000 residents, which is the highest rate in Ottawa. The ward with the second-highest rate was Rideau-Vanier, which saw 55 break-ins per capita.

Break-and-enters per capita (by city ward) in 2012:

Overall, the number of break-and-enters throughout the city has not changed much from 2011 to 2012. In Kitchissippi ward, however the number of break-and-enters is up from 152 in 2011, or an increase of about 63 per cent.

“Break and enters happen in every community… we try to make sure our community police constable is aware of what’s going on and we try to follow up with them on any issues that can make our community safer,” said Matt Whitehead, president of the Hintonburg Community Association.

Where the break-ins are happening: Map of wards, with darker wards having a higher rate of break-ins per capita in 2012

Hintonburg is seeing a resurgence in recent years. The neighbourhood had a reputation for prostitution and drugs in 1990s, when the community association began to target drug houses along with law enforcement agencies and start to clean up the neighbourhood.

Today, the community association is facing instead an invasion of condominium developers. New restaurants and galleries open on a regular basis in this neighbourhood. In 2007, Air Canada’s inflight magazine enRoute included Hintonburg in its list of the top 10 emerging neighbourhoods in Canada.

“Security issues with the community have largely decreased over the past 20 years dramatically and over the past five years even more so,” Whitehead said, adding the association’s zoning committee was busier than the security committee nowadays.

Kitchissippi saw a string of break-ins around the Civic Hospital area in January 2012, and then again in September that year.

The average rate for break-ins in Ottawa was about 29 per 10,000 residents.

 

OTTAWA – Like most cities of its size, Ottawa has an active downtown core, filled with unique shops, bars and restaurants. And, like most cities, this also means the downtown becomes a hotspot for drunken brawls after the bars close, harsh words and drug activity. In Ottawa, the area around the Byward Market and east to Vanier is known to attract this kind of criminal behaviour. In fact, the Rideau-Vanier ward has the highest rate of crime in the city for a whole slew of offences, ranging from theft under $5000 to prostitution.

Despite high overall crime rates, Rideau-Vanier doesn’t take the top spot for the number of bail violations. In 2012, Somerset ward beat out Rideau-Vanier, racking up 751 bail violation charges. That translates to a per capita rate (per 10,000 people) of 195.6. This is lower than in 2011, when the per capita rate sat at 251.2. Still, this doesn’t paint a promising picture. The 2012 Somerset ward rate of bail violations tripled the rate in Rideau-Vanier ward, which sat at 64.4, with 309 actual violations. The statistics come from data analysis done by this reporter.

Bail violations in 2012 by ward

But with so many arrests in the downtown core, it hardly seems logical that the bail violations are concentrated elsewhere.

Don Wadel, the executive director of the John Howard Society of Ontario for reasonable responses to crime, was baffled by the statistic.

“It makes no sense at all,” he said. “That is completely a surprise.”

Though taken aback at first, Wadel said he thinks low-income housing and rooming houses in Somerset ward could be cause for the statistic. Many people who violate bail face challenges like drug or alcohol abuse and housing instability. Wadel said both Rideau-Vanier and Somerset wards are home to people with these issues, who, he said, are “the people who have the hardest time abiding by bail conditions.”

Somerset ward also includes a lot of parks, close to LCBOs or Beer Stores, which provides an inviting place for homeless or unstable people to sleep and feed addiction.

Ottawa crime statistics by ward and by offence 

While Wadel said he expected people who use shelters to violate bail more frequently because of unstable living conditions, Ottawa bail lawyer Michael Spratt said many homeless people may never get the chance to violate bail.

“I suspect that there are less people released who may be users of shelters,” he said. “Those people tend to have a less stable plan, less resources, less support, and it’s actually harder for them to be released.”

In other words, while there may be more crime in Rideau-Vanier, there may be fewer people being released, and, therefore, less opportunity for bail violations. He added that those who are released into Somerset ward may face bail conditions that are difficult to abide by given their housing circumstances.

For instance, someone living in a rooming house may live with another person with a criminal record. If a condition of his or her bail is to not associate with anyone with a criminal record, he or she may be violating bail simply by going home. Spratt said those who live in Somerset may be placed under stricter bail conditions, too, based on the reputation of the area as a hub of criminal activity. This, he said, invites more bail violations.

“A lot of the bail violations that we see are a direct result of conditions that are inappropriate,” said Spratt.

Inspector Chris Rheaume of the Ottawa Police Service, who is responsible for Somerset-area crime monitoring, was unable to be reached for comment after several attempts to contact him.

Ottawa Police Service media spokesperson Constable Chuck Benoit hesitated to comment, but said that Somerset ward may simply be “more towards where [those who violate bail] are hanging out.”

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