In the next 20 years the aboriginal population categorized by First Nations, Metis, and Inuit is projected to increase dramatically as more people begin to report themselves as being aboriginal.
According to data from the 2006 Census and 2011 National Household Survey (NHS) over the course of five years the aboriginal population as a whole increased by 20 per cent. While high fertility among aboriginal women is one factor in the population increase, the largest factor driving the growth has to do with an increased number of people identifying themselves as aboriginal.
Aboriginal identity has been a point of confusion at the legal, political, and personal level. Legislative changes to the Indian Act and most recently the Supreme Court recognition of Metis peoples in April, have sought to legally define aboriginal peoples. For the Metis population, recognition of their identity has been especially difficult in the face of discrimination.
“Metis identity is a very confusing thing to a lot of people, mainly because there’s two major aspects of our identity; not only do you have to be of mixed ancestry: European and aboriginal, but you also have to have that connection to a historical Metis settlement,” said Kelly Douquette, a Metis law student at the University of Ottawa.
Douquette thinks more people will identify themselves as Metis after the Supreme Court decision.
“Now that our rights are recognized and we are legitimized by the government, a lot of people don’t feel as afraid to come forward, and really be proud of who they are.”
In the Statistics Canada report Projections of the Aboriginal Population and Households in Canada, 2011 to 2036, the Metis population is estimated to experience the most growth from ‘ethnic mobility’ the formal term for self-identification.
“Self-reported identification is more important for the Metis population and the non-status Indian population, because even within the aboriginal population you have differences of main factors of growth,” Stephanie Langlois, senior analyst for Statistics Canada demography division, said.
“Someone in the past might not have identified themselves as an aboriginal person and five years later they self-identify with an aboriginal group.”
Annie Turner, a statistician with Statistics Canada, said the drastic increase can be attributed to a number of factors.
“We know that fertility rate is higher for aboriginal people compared to non-aboriginal people but there are many factors that we need to take into account when comparing the aboriginal population between 2006 to 2011, so there could be slight differences in the wording of the questions, differences in methodology between the 2006 Census and NHS, some legislative changes for example Bill C-31 in 1985 or Bill C-3 in 2011, which could affect these concepts of aboriginal identity or registered Indian status, as well as the definition of reserves.”
The 2036 projections estimate that the aboriginal populations could rise even higher if certain growth characteristics such as fertility and ethnic mobility continue their trends. In the western provinces such as Saskatchewan and Manitoba, aboriginal populations could make up one in five people in this provinces by 2036.
Meanwhile in the territories like the Yukon, Nunavut, and the North West Territories, Inuit hold the highest share of the total population although of a much smaller total population.
Compared to the non-aboriginal population, the aboriginal population is growing at a much faster rate. The non-aboriginal population is increasing less than one per cent a year, mainly due to immigration, while the aboriginal population is averaging 1.1 to 2.2 per cent.