I took a look at the extent of the youth voter turnout problem in the federal elections between 2004-2011 (as we all know, there were, amazingly, four total in just those eight years).

Note: The full Elections Canada dataset from the October 2015 election is not available yet.

A very brief overview of the history: We saw a spike in overall voter turnout in 2006 in response to the dissolution of Parliament due to the Paul Martin corruption scandal, from 60.9 per cent turnout in 2004 to a 64.7 per cent turnout in 2006, with the youth vote (persons aged 18-24) increasing by a substantial 6.52 per cent. The third election in five years in 2008 seemed to quell the intermittent rise in enthusiasm as the 18-24 vote declined 6.4 per cent in 2008. There was a modest increase in 2011.

I sought to quantify the youth voting turnout in slightly different terms to better understand the extent of its underrepresentation among the voting public.

Below, a negative number shows “underrepresentation” – a positive number shows “overrepresentation” – among actual voters compared to the “elector pool” of eligible voters. Put simply, this is the percentage difference between how many people did vote and how many people could vote among the different age demographics.

Here is the raw data I pulled from various Elections Canada spreadsheets, along with my own calculations in the far right columns.

By calculating the percentage of the total eligible voters belonging to each age demographic, we can also see evidence of how Canada’s aging population is affecting the political dynamic of the country. While the percentage of the total share of eligible voters has declined for every age group between 18-44, the share of eligible voters belonging to the 44-74 age groups is expanding.

This accentuates the need for young Canadians to understand how their turnout at the ballot box will only continue to grow in importance.

The most dedicated voting block has been the 65-74 demographic over the last four federal elections, and the portion of the Canadian population over the age of 65 is rapidly expanding as the youngest generation of baby boomers will be 65 by 2031. It is expected that the percentage of the Canadian population aged 65 or older come 2036 will be around 24%, compared to just 14% in 2009 — a 10% increase in a 17-year period.

It is in no way overstating the analysis to say that, in the last four elections, the difference in turnout between citizens aged 65 or older and citizens between the ages of 20-34 has been vast. If this pattern holds, knowing the changing demographics of the country, the political voice of the youngest voting-eligible generation stands to become even more marginalized, and theoretically the issues facing the demographic will be even less relevant to politically-expedient members of Parliament.

The recent Liberal electoral victory has been partially attributed to an increased youth voter turnout based on the overall voter turnout increase and advanced voting numbers among students, but we will have to wait to see the true extent of the youth voting factor in the recent Liberal victory when Elections Canada makes the data available. It will also remain to be seen if the 2015 election momentum in this area will prove more sustainable than it has in the recent past.